Research Market report
Upper Midwest hotel sale data, January to May 2026
- Minnesota
- Wisconsin
- Iowa
- North Dakota
- South Dakota
105 hotel sales in MN, WI, IA, ND and SD from January to May 2026, +25%; volume $359M, +58%. Average price per key up 57% while the median fell 12.5%.
Through conversations, the state of the hotel market on the sell side has come up more times than I can count, so here is a full snapshot: every hotel sale across Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, North Dakota and South Dakota from January through May 2026, against the same months of 2025.
Transactions, Jan-May 2026
105
+25.0% year over year
Sales volume
$359M
+58.1%
Average price per key
$63,327
+56.8%
Average cap rate
10.1%
-110 bps
List price to close price
-13.9%
+720 bps
Average months to sale
7.9 months
+0.9 months
Boundaries, roads and water: U.S. Census Bureau (TIGER/Line).
Key changes, year over year
More hotels sold, for more money: 105 transactions against 84, and $359M of volume against $227M. Hotels are also closing closer to their asking prices. On average a hotel sold at 86.1% of its list price in 2026 (listed for $5M, sold for $4.305M), up from 78.9% a year earlier (listed for $5M, sold for $3.945M). Deals took a little longer, 7.9 months on average against 7.0.
| Metric | Jan-May 2025 | Jan-May 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total number of transactions | 84 | 105 | +25.0% |
| Sales volume | $227M | $359M | +58.1% |
| Average price per key | $40,379 | $63,327 | +56.8% |
| Average cap rate | 11.2% | 10.1% | -110 bps |
| List price to close price | -21.1% | -13.9% | +720 bps |
| Average months to sale | 7.0 | 7.9 | +0.9 months |
A closer look: the average and the median
Price per key across the five states jumped from $40,379 to $63,327, a roughly +57% increase in the average. The median moved the other way, falling about -12.5%, from $54,249 to $47,488. That spread between average and median is the real story: a small number of larger transactions are pulling the average up, while most mid-market deals are selling at slightly softer per-key prices than a year ago.
All of the sales data is based on the post-allocation price (public data), so every figure derived from price (price per key, cap rate and list-to-close) skews low. Reporting also lags, so 2026's sales volume and number of transactions may be slightly understated.
The rate environment
The prime rate has moved modestly, but the 10-year and 5-year Treasury rates sit at about the same levels as in May 2025. With Kevin Warsh confirmed by the Senate on May 12, 2026 and the final chair vote expected the next day, conditions could change. Everything I am seeing from Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase and CME Group FedWatch points to no further rate cut until 2027. That said, no one ever seems to get rate predictions right.
| Rate | Jan-May 2025 | Jan-May 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| 10-year Treasury, start to end | 4.774% to 4.439% | 4.171% to 4.490% |
| 10-year Treasury, low | 3.991% | 3.962% |
| 10-year Treasury, high | 4.774% | 4.490% (current) |
| 5-year Treasury, start to end | 4.410% to 4.063% | 3.741% to 4.147% |
| 5-year Treasury, low | 3.712% | 3.514% |
| 5-year Treasury, high | 4.590% | 4.147% (current) |
| Prime rate | 7.50% | 6.75% |
Sell before or after a PIP?
A question that keeps coming up is whether to sell before or after completing a sizable PIP. A good number of things go into the answer: the estimated cost of the PIP, the term left on the franchise agreement, the liquidated damages, conversion opportunities where a market lacks a brand, the hotel's current reviews, its penetration against its comp set, and the growth expected once the work is done.
Whether you want a PIP buy-versus-hold analysis, a current valuation for an investor meeting, or are thinking about an exit for any reason, request a valuation. There is no cost or obligation to sell.
Tools
- A report on any market in MN, WI, IA, ND or SD. Ask for one.
- Full hotel underwriting and waterfall model. Download the Excel model free.